The Trade Deadline Could Change a Team. These MVP Candidates Already Have.

Our AL and NL MVP ballots agree at the top and get much harder from there.

MVP voting gets weird once you get past the obvious names. One player can dominate every offensive leaderboard and give you almost nothing with the glove. Another can trail him badly at the plate and make up chunks of the difference at shortstop, in center field, or on the bases.

That is where Smayan Srikanth of Sports Square and Pete Dwyer of The Baseball Nerd started. We each built our own top three for the American and National Leagues, and we did not try to force the ballots to match. Some names did. The reasoning often did not. By the time we got through both leagues, the more interesting question was not simply who should win MVP. It was what each of us was actually rewarding when we used the word “valuable.”

Who leads the AL MVP race at the 2026 midseason mark?

Baseball Nerd picks

1. Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros

Start with the number that ends most conversations: 194 wRC+.

Alvarez is hitting 94 percent better than a league-average hitter, and nobody else in the American League is within 35 points of him. His .447 wOBA laps the field. His 5.3 FanGraphs WAR leads every AL position player, even with the penalty that comes from spending most of his time at designated hitter. The .322 ISO says the damage is real, not batting-average noise.

He is hitting .325/.435/.647 with 35 home runs and 80 RBI. The expected numbers are somehow even more ridiculous: a .338 xBA, .718 xSLG, and .477 xwOBA. Alvarez has not been getting away with soft contact or a fortunate run of ground balls finding holes. The underlying data suggests he could have done even more damage.

If the vote happened today on offense alone, it would be unanimous. It will not happen on offense alone, and that is where this gets interesting.

2. Nick Kurtz, Athletics

Kurtz is not second in WAR. He is not second in wRC+, either.

He is hitting .260/.398/.491 with 21 home runs and a 145 wRC+ across 425 plate appearances. Those numbers are excellent, but they do not automatically place him ahead of Junior Caminero, Ben Rice, or Bobby Witt Jr. The contact quality does.

That is where the argument starts.

Kurtz owns a 93.4 mph average exit velocity, a 57.4 percent hard-hit rate, and an 18.2 percent barrel rate. His hard-hit rate is higher than Alvarez’s, and his barrel rate is almost identical. He has also walked in 18.1 percent of his plate appearances, the highest rate among the candidates on either AL ballot.

Pitchers do not have an easy choice against him. Come into the zone, and Kurtz can hit the ball as hard as almost anyone in baseball. Stay away from him, and he will take first base.

The problem is the 32.2 percent strikeout rate. Kurtz has struck out 137 times, which has kept all that contact quality from turning into the full offensive line it looks capable of producing.

That is also why he remains so dangerous over the final two months. He does not need to start hitting the ball harder. He needs to give himself a few more chances to hit it.

Witt has accumulated more total value. Caminero and Rice have cleaner offensive numbers. Kurtz remains second on this ballot because the combination of patience, barrels, and elite hard contact gives him the best chance to change the shape of the race in a hurry.

3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals

Witt is the candidate the hitting leaderboard undersells.

His 119 wRC+ is nowhere near the top of the American League. Junior Caminero is at 152. Ben Rice is at 158. Kurtz is at 145.

So why is Witt here? Because those numbers measure the bat and only the bat.

Witt is hitting .279/.350/.450 with 13 home runs, but he has also stolen 30 bases while being caught five times. FanGraphs credits him with 13.4 fielding runs and 17.3 total defensive runs once his work at shortstop is included.

Put everything together, and Witt has produced 4.7 WAR. That trails only Alvarez among the AL players discussed in this article.

His expected numbers also suggest the bat should be louder. Witt has a .306 xBA, .517 xSLG, and .386 xwOBA, all well above his actual production. He has already created MVP-level value without receiving the offensive results his contact says he deserves.

A shortstop hitting 19 percent above average while playing elite defense and creating runs on the bases carries an MVP profile that a first baseman or designated hitter with a better wRC+ does not automatically surpass.

Kurtz has the more explosive offensive ceiling. Witt has already built the more complete season.

AL MVP: Smayan’s top three

1. Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros

Forget the .328 average for a second and look at what Alvarez just did in July. He’s hitting .321 with a .640 slugging percentage through 108 games, and his 35 home runs lead the entire MLB. He rode a ten-game hitting streak, going 18-for-37 with five homers and ten RBIs in that stretch alone, and his manager literally said that he is the MVP right now. A 1.073 OPS proves that too.

2. Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays

In the first 19 games of June, Caminero looked normal: two homers, a .268 average, nothing scary. Then something clicked, and over his final seven games of the month he hit .481 with a 1.347 OPS, eight homers, and 18 RBI. That stretch alone won him AL Player of the Month. He hasn’t slowed down since, riding a seven-game hit streak into the trade deadline stretch with multi-hit games in four of those seven. His OPS is ninth in all of baseball. People are already comparing him to peak Aaron Judge.

3. Ben Rice, New York Yankees

When Aaron Judge landed on the IL on June 2, the Yankees needed someone to hold the middle of that lineup together, and Rice did exactly that. He made his first All-Star team, contested in the Home Run Derby, and won AL Player of the Week twice. Through 91 games, he’s slashing .279 with 29 homers and 68 RBI, all career highs with two months still to play.

Just missed the cut

Nick Kurtz, Athletics

Before the All-Star break, Kurtz was set to start at first base for the AL. Then his thumb got in the way. A right thumb sprain landed him on the 10-day IL right before the game, and just like that, the sophomore breakout lost his moment on the biggest stage of the first half. He’d earned it. At the time of the injury, Kurtz led the entire American League in both RBI (66) and walks (76), numbers that don’t happen by accident for a 23-year-old in year two. He’s healthy again now, but he’s also lost real time in a race where Alvarez and Caminero didn’t stop running.

Who leads the NL MVP race at the 2026 midseason mark?

Baseball Nerd picks

1. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

The National League race starts with a two-line explanation.

At the plate, Ohtani is hitting .286/.391/.533 with 23 home runs, a .389 wOBA, and a 147 wRC+. On the mound, he is 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and 95 strikeouts across 85 2/3 innings.

His bat alone would put him in the NL MVP conversation. His arm alone would put him in the Cy Young conversation. He is doing both again, which remains the argument no other candidate can reproduce.

The race is closer than it was earlier in the season. James Wood has been the better hitter by wRC+. Pete Crow-Armstrong has accumulated far more position-player WAR. Ohtani has also been unable to pitch since July 3.

He still leads this ballot because the complete package matters. A 147 wRC+ paired with a 1.79 ERA is a season that breaks the normal ways we compare players.

The only question is how long the pitching half of that case can remain frozen before someone catches him.

2. James Wood, Washington Nationals

Wood’s case is volume plus violence. He is hitting .269/.396/.550 with 30 home runs, 85 walks, and 97 runs scored.

His 155 wRC+ is the best mark among the NL position players on our ballots, and he has done it across 508 plate appearances, the heaviest workload of any elite bat in this group. No rest days, no platoon protection, no soft landing.

The batted-ball data says it is sustainable. Wood owns a 95.2 mph average exit velocity, a 58.7 percent hard-hit rate, and a 21.8 percent barrel rate. His .423 xwOBA sits above his already excellent .401 wOBA, while his .598 expected slugging percentage is nearly 50 points higher than his actual mark.

Wood has not been getting lucky. There is an argument that the results have undersold how well he has hit the ball.

The weakness in the MVP case is everything outside the batter’s box. Wood has produced 4.3 WAR, a strong total that still trails Crow-Armstrong by 2.5 wins because of the difference in defense and baserunning.

In a league without Ohtani, Wood has the strongest pure-hitting argument. Whether that is enough to clear the most complete position player in the league is where the ballot gets difficult.

3. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs

Crow-Armstrong is no longer a distant alternative waiting for Ohtani or Wood to slow down.

He is hitting .285/.384/.535 with 23 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 151 wRC+. That offensive production alone puts him among the best hitters in the league. Then the rest of the game arrives.

FanGraphs credits Crow-Armstrong with 17.8 fielding runs, 3.7 baserunning runs, and 19.4 total defensive runs once his positional value in center field is included.

Add it all together, and he has produced 6.8 WAR. That is the highest position-player total in the data and 2.5 wins more than Wood.

Stack elite center-field defense on top of offense that has been 51 percent better than league average, and you get the most complete position player in the National League.

The only hesitation is in the expected offensive numbers. Crow-Armstrong has a .393 wOBA with a .360 xwOBA, while his .535 slugging percentage comes with a .462 expected mark. Some regression could be coming at the plate.

His defense and speed are not going anywhere. If Ohtani’s arm remains unavailable, PCA is not merely the candidate positioned to make this a race. He may already have the strongest total-value case in the league.

Who just missed the cut?

Kyle Schwarber is hitting .252/.365/.545 with 33 home runs, a 145 wRC+, and 2.5 WAR. Bryce Harper is hitting .252/.358/.488 with 22 home runs, a 128 wRC+, and 1.8 WAR.

The Phillies have two dangerous hitters, but neither has built a clean argument over Ohtani, Wood, or Crow-Armstrong. Schwarber has the power, but almost no defensive or baserunning value. Harper has a more complete game, but his offensive production has not been close enough to the top three.

NL MVP: Smayan’s top three

1. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

The league still runs through him. Ohtani hasn’t taken the mound since July 3 because of left knee irritation that’s kept him out indefinitely, needing fluid drained and a lubricant injection just to make it through the break. And it still doesn’t matter. Across 85.2 innings, he has a 1.79 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP with 95 strikeouts. He’s chasing a fourth MVP in five years, and if not for Aaron Judge in 2022, this would already be five straight. Even with the pitching taken away, and even if his hitting numbers dip a bit, he’s still the guy the other candidates have to catch.

2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs

Since May 30, nobody in baseball has been better. Over that stretch, PCA is hitting .350 with a .730 slugging percentage, 18 homers, and 14 steals, good for a 222 wRC+ that people are comparing to Willie Mays. He’s not getting there on offense alone, either. His defensive numbers sit in the 100th percentile in both Fielding Run Value and Outs Above Average, which is a fancy way of saying nobody in center field is better right now. His own team president has started saying a Crow-Armstrong walk is worth as much as a double because of what he does on the bases after. He’s on pace for a second straight 30-30 season, something no Cub has ever done in franchise history. It doesn’t matter, however good Ohtani has been this season, because PCA is making this extremely close.

3. James Wood, Washington Nationals

Wood hasn’t had a slump this season. In July alone, he’s hitting .306 with a 1.150 OPS, and pitchers have started walking him on purpose, 15+ times just this month. He leads all of baseball in runs scored (99), extra-base hits (57), and walks (89), leads the NL outright in OPS and total bases, and is top 3 in OBP and slugging. He’s already set the Nationals’ single-season franchise record for leadoff homers, and he’s a two-time NL Player of the Week this year alone. Wood can easily overtake Ohtani and PCA if he continues doing what he’s doing.

Just missed the cut

Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies

Schwarber got to 30 home runs in 84 games this year. That’s the fastest any Phillie has ever done it, faster than Mike Schmidt, and it’s his sixth straight 30-homer season, the longest active streak in baseball. He’s currently tied with Yordan Alvarez at the top of the MLB home run leaderboard with 33 apiece. The problem for his MVP case isn’t power; it’s everything else. He’s hitting .252 with a .911 OPS, respectable but not special for a DH who doesn’t play the field. Great slugger, great streak, but a great slugger with no defensive value is a tough sell against a two-way superstar and a center fielder playing Gold Glove defense.

Our MVP picks entering the stretch run

Our American League winner is Yordan Alvarez. Pete has Nick Kurtz second and Bobby Witt Jr. third. Smayan has Junior Caminero second and Ben Rice third.

Our National League winner is Shohei Ohtani. Pete follows him with James Wood and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Smayan reverses those two, placing Crow-Armstrong second and Wood third.

The winners are unanimous between us. The reasoning behind the ballots is not.

That is what the final two months will settle. Alvarez must prove that a designated hitter can create enough offensive separation to make every other category irrelevant. Ohtani needs to return to the mound before Crow-Armstrong or Wood turns a narrowing race into a real one.

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