Introducing ABS IQ+: We Built a Metric to Score Every Team's Challenge Intelligence
Numbers Not Feelings is now a measurable statistic. What a world we live in
So, if you follow me on FanSided, you know I have been put on the ABS beat for national stuff. Since the inception of the ABS Challenge System, I have been watching the results very closely and after six weeks of data, what seemed to be noise has transformed into signal. We have a sample size that can bear forecast, and the data has been enlightening. You saw my earlier post about hitters and emotional decisions, and that is the precursor to this work. I hope this is as fun for you to explore as it has been for me.
Here is what six weeks of Automated Ball-Strike data has confirmed: batters cannot stop themselves. The data is unambiguous. As leverage climbs, batters challenge more. Their accuracy drops. Catchers hold steady on both numbers. The emotional challenge is the primary failure mode of the ABS era, and it is already measurable.
That finding is what drove us to build ABS IQ+. A proprietary composite metric, scaled to 100 equals league average following the wRC+ and ERA+ convention, that scores how intelligently every MLB team and player is using the challenge system. Four components feed the score: raw accuracy on challenges initiated (30%), skill accuracy measured as won percentage above what the pitch locations should have produced (20%), challenge rate discipline relative to the Statcast expected model (30%), and net value generated above expectation (20%). Each is z-score normalized within position group. One standard deviation above average equals 115. The full methodology and scoring procedures are documented in the ABS IQ+ white paper, available in the Data Vault at thebaseballnerd.com.
The top-line team result is Kansas City at 113.9. What makes them interesting is not one exceptional number but two consistent ones. Their batters win 62 percent of challenges and challenge at a disciplined 3.7 percent rate. Their catchers win 62 percent on the defensive side. Both halves of their challenge operation are running the same way, identifying real borderline pitches and saying no when a pitch is clearly in the zone. That is organizational intelligence, not individual talent. The Royals are not the team with the best hitters or the most analytically famous front office. They are the team that has figured out what the system rewards, and they are executing it on both sides of the ball.
